Why Care?įurther experimentation supported the concept of hindsight bias. He found that people in the groups who were given a “known” outcome were more likely to see that specific outcome as obvious. Finally, Fischhoff had all the participants predict the likelihood of all four results. The outcomes were things like “British victory” and “military stalemate with a peace settlement.” The fifth group did not have an outcome at the end of their informative paragraph. After they read the informative paragraph about the event, he gave each of the four groups a different outcome. In his study in 1975, Fischhoff presented five groups of people with a bit of background information about a small conflict between British and Napolese soldiers from 1814. The ExperimentĪ doctoral student at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem named Baruch Fischhoff was the first one to document the concept of hindsight bias. Hindsight bias is the tendency to overestimate the accuracy of one’s prediction after learning the outcome of an event. When your friend found out that your team won, they became convinced that they knew victory was guaranteed, even though they were uncertain, just like you. When the outcome of an event is known, it is easy to say that it was obvious in retrospect. Finally, in the last five seconds, the team you were rooting for wins! Your friend shouts, “Yes! I knew they would win all along!” Is this true though? Weren’t you both unsure for the whole game? Why is your friend suddenly so sure that this was always going to be the outcome? Here’s Why Have you ever been to a sports game where both teams were strong, and you weren’t quite sure who would win? You and a friend might have chatted and cheered and been left in suspense for most of the game.
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